Rosetta — Market Intelligence

DeFi Lending Markets

February 2026 Intelligence Report
March 2026·Rosetta·Data: Circular Risk Intelligence
Executive Summary

Stabilization After the Storm

Decentralized lending is settling into something more durable than the peaks of mid-2025. After Aave’s TVL ran to $40 billion in August and total lending deposits topped $57 billion, the market corrected through Q4 and has since stabilized. Circular currently tracks $45.6 billion in TVL across 655 markets on 18 chains, with $19.1 billion in active borrows. The composition of liquidity has shifted: growth is increasingly tied to institutional distribution channels, curated market structures, and tokenized collateral rather than purely reflexive crypto leverage. Apollo Global Management’s commitment to acquire roughly 9% of MORPHO governance tokens is the clearest signal of that transition.

Three developments stand out in February. First, Coinbase’s BTC- and ETH-backed loan products, powered by Morpho on Base, crossed $1 billion in active loans—a 136% increase from Q4 and proof that institutional distribution and permissionless infrastructure can reinforce one another. Second, tokenized U.S. Treasury collateral grew 17% from $9.2 billion to $10.8 billion, with BlackRock’s BUIDL fund near $2.2 billion AUM and expanding its multi-chain footprint. Third, market leadership continued to consolidate around Aave and Morpho, while modular lenders such as Euler, Fluid, and Kamino became harder to ignore in protocol selection and cross-chain analysis.

Key Metrics at a Glance

MetricFeb 2026Q4 2025QoQ
Aave V3 TVL (DefiLlama)$25.3B$25.9B-2.3%
Aave Cumulative Lending>$1T~$900B+11%
Morpho Total Deposits$8.67B$8.5B+2.0%
Morpho Active Loans$3.32B$3.0B+10.7%
Morpho Active Loans (Base)$1.18B$0.5B+136%
Aave Horizon RWA TVL~$500M$580M-13.8%
GHO Outstanding Supply~$530M~$500M+6.0%
Fluid Total Supply$1.0BNew
Fluid Active Markets85New
Avg USDC Borrow Rate (Aave)5.4%~5.0%+40bps
Stablecoin Market Cap~$311B~$308B+1.0%
USDT Market Cap$183.6B$186.7B-1.7%
USDC Market Cap$75.3B$74.3B+1.3%
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries$10.8B$9.2B+17.4%
BlackRock BUIDL AUM$2.19B~$2.0B~+10%
Sources: DefiLlama, data.morpho.org, Aave Governance, RWA.xyz, CoinGecko, Circular. Figures as of late Feb / early March 2026.

Market Snapshot

Total Tracked TVL
$45.6B
655 markets · 18 chains
Avg Utilization
41.8%
Aave + Morpho + Euler + Fluid
Total Borrow
$19.1B
42% utilization rate
Asset Concentration
HHI 3386
Stablecoins 39.7% · ETH 38.9% · BTC 16.8%
Source: Circular. Coverage spans Aave V3, Morpho, Euler, and Fluid across tracked deployed chains.

What Changed in Q1

ChangeWhy It Matters
Morpho-linked Coinbase loans crossed $1.0B active loans on BaseInstitutional distribution is now driving measurable share gains at the protocol and chain level.
DeFi lending TVL stabilized near $45.6B after the Q4 correctionThe market is shifting from momentum expansion to a steadier, infrastructure-led phase.
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries grew to $10.8B; BUIDL approached $2.2BRWA collateral is becoming a material input to lending market growth, not just a pilot narrative.
Aave remained dominant, while Morpho, Euler, and Fluid continued modular-share gainsProtocol selection is increasingly about market design, curator structure, and distribution, not just raw TVL.
Fluid (Instadapp) reached $1.0B in deposits across 85 markets on 3 chainsSmart collateral and smart debt vaults introduce a new capital efficiency paradigm alongside traditional isolated-pair lending.
Kamino strengthened Solana’s position as a parallel lending venueCross-chain lending analysis now requires a Solana-specific view, not just an EVM comparison.

Section 1

The Macro Convergence

1.1 Apollo × Morpho: Infrastructure Commitment Signals

Apollo Global Management signed a cooperation agreement with the Morpho Association to acquire up to 90 million MORPHO tokens—roughly 9% of total supply—over four years through open-market purchases, OTC transactions, and negotiated arrangements. The deal includes ownership caps and transfer restrictions designed to limit market impact.

This is a strategic infrastructure commitment from a leading alternative asset manager with approaching $1 trillion in assets under management. When firms at that scale take governance positions in DeFi protocols, the signal is clear: large traditional financial institutions now treat decentralized lending as core infrastructure.

1.2 The Stablecoin Supercycle

Stablecoin Market Capitalization
~$311B total · Q1 2026 · USDT + USDC = 83% share
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Total stablecoin market cap reached roughly $311 billion, essentially flat quarter-over-quarter from $308 billion at year-end. USDT ($183.6B) and USDC ($75.3B) hold about 83% combined share. USDT actually contracted 1.7% QoQ from $186.7B, while USDC grew marginally to $75.3B. The yield-bearing stablecoin segment—Ethena’s USDe ($6.3B), sDAI ($4.7B), GHO (~$530M)—remains the fastest-growing collateral category in DeFi lending.

GHO deserves separate mention. At ~$530M outstanding, up 6% from Q4’s $500M, it generates approximately 10% of Aave’s protocol revenue. One GHO minted produces as much revenue as $10 borrowed in other stablecoins—a 10x efficiency advantage driven by borrow fees, liquidation penalties, and stability fees. The Ethereum Foundation borrowed $2M GHO against ETH collateral, followed by Galaxy Digital and Bybit integrations.


Section 2

Protocol Analysis: Aave, Morpho, Euler & Fluid

2.1 Aave V3: The Incumbent

DeFi Lending Protocol TVL
Q4 2025 through Q1 2026 · Stabilization after mid-2025 correction
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Aave V3 sits at roughly $25.3 billion in TVL per DefiLlama, slightly below Q4’s $25.9 billion but still far above every other lending venue on a chain-adjusted basis. The broader Aave stack has crossed $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume. It has also processed billions in liquidations across 15+ chains without major infrastructure failure—a scale and reliability profile that remains unmatched in lending.

Governance locked in a permanent $50 million annual buyback budget funded by protocol revenues, on top of a pilot program that already retired over 94,000 AAVE tokens. Revenue runs at roughly $100–120 million annualized, with close to $1 billion in gross fees flowing through the system. Aave V4, in active development, will introduce a unified liquidity hub with modular spoke markets and improved cross-chain functionality.

Aave Horizon: The RWA Bridge

Horizon is Aave’s permissioned market where institutions borrow stablecoins (USDC, RLUSD, GHO) against tokenized Treasuries and CLOs. After peaking at $580M in December and reaching $628M in January, TVL has settled to approximately $500M. The 2026 roadmap targets $1B+ through partnerships with Circle, Ripple, Franklin Templeton, and VanEck.

2.2 Morpho: The Institutional Primitive

The Morpho Expansion
Deposits by chain · Morpho overtakes Aave on Base · Q1 2026
Morpho Deposits by Chain
Morpho vs Aave: Active Loans
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Morpho holds about $8.67 billion in deposits with $3.32 billion in active loans as of late February. Deposits are modestly above Q4’s $8.5 billion, while active loans are up from roughly $3.0 billion—a healthier borrower-to-deposit ratio. The standout number is Base: Morpho overtook Aave as the largest lending market on the chain, reaching $1.18 billion in active loans versus Aave’s $539M, up 136% from Q4’s $500 million.

The growth story is straightforward: permissionless market creation lets anyone deploy a lending market with custom parameters, the curator model enables professional risk managers to configure markets on behalf of users, and Coinbase serves as the primary distribution channel. Coinbase’s BTC- and ETH-backed loan products settle entirely on Morpho’s isolated markets on Base.

The Curator Ecosystem

Steakhouse Financial leads as the largest Morpho curator, managing 48 vaults across six chains with $1.45 billion in deposits. Other major curators include Gauntlet (quantitative risk), RE7 Labs (emerging market strategies), and B.Protocol (liquidation-optimized backstop mechanisms). Cumulative curator fee revenue has reached $3 million and is tracking toward $7.8 million annualized.

Largest Morpho Vaults by TVL

VaultChainTVLAPYAssetAllocations
Steakhouse Prime USDCBase$329M3.93%USDC6
Gauntlet USDC PrimeBase$324M3.93%USDC8
Steakhouse USDCBase$287M2.93%USDC6
Steakhouse USDCEthereum$280M2.75%USDC5
Sentora PYUSDEthereum$216M1.72%PYUSD6
Gauntlet USDC PrimeEthereum$208M2.75%USDC4
Source: Circular. The dominance of USDC vaults on Base reflects Coinbase distribution. Base vaults deliver a ~120bps premium over Ethereum equivalents.

Morpho V2: What Comes Next

Morpho V2, expected in Q2 2026, will externalize rate pricing and move to market-driven rates. That enables fixed-rate lending, custom loan terms, and simplified cross-chain borrowing—capabilities that institutional credit markets have always had but DeFi has lacked. V2 bridges the gap between variable-rate DeFi markets and structured on-chain credit products.

Euler: Smaller, But Back in the Conversation

Euler is still well behind Aave V3 and Morpho in absolute scale, but it is no longer ignorable. DefiLlama shows roughly $498 million in TVL and $744 million borrowed, with a modular design that appeals to more risk-tolerant on-chain lenders. In practice, Euler now matters less as a direct Aave competitor and more as a reminder that modular lending architectures are proliferating beyond Morpho alone.

Fluid: Smart Collateral Enters the Picture

Fluid, built by Instadapp, is the most architecturally distinct lending protocol to reach meaningful scale in this cycle. Circular now tracks 85 Fluid markets across Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum, with $1.0 billion in total deposits and $374 million in active borrows. The protocol operates on two layers: a lending layer of fToken supply-only vaults (ERC-4626), and a vault layer of collateralized borrow/lend markets with isolated pairs—similar in structure to Morpho but with several unique mechanisms.

The headline features are smart collateral (use DEX LP tokens as collateral) and smart debt (borrow positions that are themselves LP positions), enabling capital efficiency configurations that no other lending protocol currently supports. Fluid also uses a gradual liquidation mechanism—penalty scales with how far underwater a position is, rather than the binary full-liquidation model used by Aave and Morpho—and an NFT-based position model where each position is an ERC-721, allowing one address to hold multiple independently managed positions in the same vault.

The largest markets by deposit size are fUSDC on Ethereum ($219M supply, 2.4% APY), the wstETH/WETH vault ($153M supply, 95% LLTV, 90.9% utilization), and fUSDT ($135M supply, 2.0% APY). On the vault side, ETH-denominated pairs dominate: WETH/USDC ($128M supply, 87% LLTV) and weETH/wstETH ($68M supply, 94% LLTV, 93.8% utilization). Arbitrum contributes $114M in supply across 20 markets, while Base hosts 23 markets with $39M. At $1 billion in deposits, Fluid is now roughly double Euler’s scale and represents a credible fourth option for institutional allocators evaluating on-chain lending venues.

Selected Lending Protocol Market Share
Q1 2026 snapshot · Excludes Tron and BNB-chain incumbents
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Section 3

Risk-Adjusted Yield Analysis

Current Lending Market APYs
Verified yields across 20 selected markets · Q1 2026 · Source: Protocol dashboards + Circular
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Current lending yields across Aave, Morpho, Fluid, Spark, Maple, and Compound vary from 2.0% (fUSDT on Fluid) to 11.8% (PT-sUSDe/USDC on Morpho). Core markets (blue-chip collateral, LST delta strategies) yield 3–6% sustainably, while enhanced yield markets incorporating points and leveraged strategies reach 8–12%. Points are time-limited subsidies with uncertain token realization and should be stripped when evaluating institutional-grade yields.

Three Opportunity Zones

  • Blue-Chip Core (APY 2.5–5%): WETH/USDC on Aave, stETH/WETH e-mode, sDAI on Spark. At 3–4% APY with conservative leverage parameters, these markets offer 24/7 liquidity and full collateral transparency.
  • LST Carry (APY 4–7%): wstETH/WETH and cbETH/USDC markets where yield comes from Ethereum staking rewards plus lending spread. The Coinbase cbBTC/USDC market on Base (3.8% APY) is a new institutional-grade BTC carry trade.
  • Enhanced Yield (APY 8–12%): PT-sUSDe on Morpho, USDe/USDC pairs, sUSDe strategies. Higher rates reflect basis risk, depeg exposure, and smart contract complexity inherent in these markets.

Yield Decomposition

MarketBase RateRewardsPointsTotal APYSustainable
WETH/USDC (Aave)3.0%0.4%3.4%3.4%
stETH/WETH e-mode3.6%0.5%4.1%4.1%
wstETH/WETH (Morpho)2.8%1.3%0.5%4.6%4.1%
cbBTC/USDC Base2.5%0.8%0.5%3.8%3.3%
USDC/USDT (Aave)3.8%1.2%0.4%5.4%3.8%
Maple Senior USDC5.2%2.8%0.5%8.5%5.2%
PT-sUSDe (Morpho)6.4%3.2%2.2%11.8%6.4%
USDe/USDC (Morpho)4.8%2.0%1.4%8.2%4.8%
Illustrative decomposition based on protocol documentation and on-chain market structure. Component breakdowns are approximate and vary by block. Source: protocol dashboards, DefiLlama Yields, Circular.

The gap between total APY and sustainable APY matters for underwriting. Points programs contribute 15–25% of headline yields in enhanced strategies and are time-limited subsidies with uncertain token realization. But even stripping points out, sustainable yields of 4–6% are comparable to IG credit spreads at ~85bps over Treasuries.

One cautionary data point: sUSDe yield compressed to roughly 4.6% in late 2025, falling below Aave’s 5.4% USDC borrow rate. That triggered carry trade unwinds and a 50% TVL decline from Ethena’s $14.8B peak to $7.6B. Yield-bearing stablecoin collateral introduces basis risk that institutional risk models need to capture.


Section 4

Strategy Intelligence

Morpho provides institutional access through the curator model, Coinbase integration, and Apollo partnership. Aave V3 delivers institutional-grade infrastructure through Horizon, GHO, and deployment breadth across 18+ chains. Spark remains closely tied to the Maker ecosystem, while newer modular lenders are expanding choice but not yet matching Aave or Morpho in depth, resilience, or distribution.

Strategy Distribution by TVL

StrategyMarketsTVLShareAvg APYAvg Risk
Native (single-asset)360$41.7B95.2%2.02%38/100
Carry18$403M0.9%4.36%54/100
LST-Delta31$265M0.6%1.97%51/100
LST-Stable24$180M0.4%3.92%63/100
Stable-Yield12$180M0.4%1.49%40/100
PT-Yield23$93M0.2%5.01%61/100
Points11$73M0.2%9.56%65/100
Recursive3$17M<0.1%3.65%66/100
Source: Circular strategy classification engine. Points strategies deliver 9.56% avg APY but carry the highest risk scores (65/100). PT-Yield offers the best risk-adjusted edge at 5.01% APY / 61 risk.

Utilization Dynamics

Base chain institutional markets run at notably higher utilization (64.6% average) because demand is concentrated around Coinbase-linked borrowing products—the flagship cbBTC/USDC market on Base sits at 90% utilization with $1.03B TVL. Ethereum markets average 40.8% utilization, reflecting deeper liquidity. Hyperliquid (85.1%) and Monad (87.7%) are the highest-utilization chains, signaling concentrated demand in nascent ecosystems where exit liquidity warrants close monitoring.

Worth flagging: the February WETH borrow rate spike to 95.4% utilization was caused by Trend Research’s roughly $2 billion leveraged ETH long on Aave. When those positions unwound, significant quantities of ETH were sold to repay stablecoin debt, creating temporary rate dislocations across multiple markets.


Section 5

Automated Yield Optimization

The proliferation of lending venues, chains, and vault curators has created an operational problem that manual processes handle poorly. With 550+ active markets across 18 chains, each with distinct utilization curves, reward schedules, and risk profiles, monitoring and rebalancing have become infrastructure questions rather than purely portfolio questions.

Why Routing Infrastructure Matters

Three forces explain the shift toward automated routing infrastructure. First, rate volatility: lending rates change with utilization and can move materially within a day. Second, switching costs: gas, slippage, and execution delay can erase the apparent yield advantage of a new venue. Third, risk-adjusted comparison: headline APYs obscure differences in oracle reliability, concentration risk, and collateral quality that need to be evaluated consistently across venues.

For institutional operations teams, that means the relevant question is less “which venue is highest today?” and more “which routing and monitoring stack can keep positions aligned with policy while preserving net yield after costs?”

Rosetta as an Operating Example

Rosetta is included here as one operating example of this model: it scans vaults, lending pools, and funding markets, then compares after-cost yield across venues under explicit risk constraints. The process combines market-state monitoring, APY calculation that includes execution costs, policy rules, and automated rebalancing when the net improvement is material.

Since launch, Rosetta has routed over $189 million in cumulative volume. The monitored vault metrics below are included as an operating example, not as a market-wide benchmark.

Selected Operating Metrics

USDT0 Portfolio Avg (Since Launch)
8.12%
Recent 7-day portfolio avg: 7.67%
USDC Portfolio Avg (Since Launch)
5.30%
Recent 7-day portfolio avg: 5.07%
Cumulative Volume
$189M+
Non-custodial routing
Active Vaults
7
5 USDT0 · 2 USDC
VaultAssetCurrent APY SnapshotVault Avg Since Launch
Hyperithm USDT0USDT07.58%7.11%
Gauntlet USDT0USDT07.29%5.05%
Felix USDT0USDT07.15%4.12%
Gauntlet USDCUSDC4.50%5.05%
Felix USDCUSDC4.47%4.65%
Operating example from metrics.rosetta.sh. Snapshot rates are shown for the week of Feb 7–13, 2026. The added since-launch column is computed from vault-level daily APY history through Feb 13, 2026, giving a cleaner comparison between a moment-in-time quote and each vault's realized history.

Rosetta's USDT0 portfolio has averaged 8.12% since launch, with a recent 7-day average of 7.67%. The current vault snapshot compresses that spread because several venues were quoting near-similar rates during the referenced week, but the realized portfolio average better reflects the routing advantage captured over time.

The significance is less the absolute number than the operational point: newer lending venues can offer a real premium, but capturing it consistently requires monitoring, routing discipline, and explicit risk constraints.


Section 6

The Collateral Revolution: RWA & Tokenized Assets

RWA and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins in DeFi Lending
Q4 2025 vs Q1 2026 · BlackRock BUIDL: ~$2.19B AUM
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Tokenized U.S. Treasury value grew from $9.2 billion at year-end to $10.8 billion by late February—a 17.4% increase and one of the strongest growth segments in on-chain collateral. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, now around $2.19 billion AUM, remains the largest tokenized Treasury product and has expanded beyond Ethereum to additional chains, including Solana. The practical signal is unchanged: large asset managers are moving from tokenization pilots toward multi-chain distribution.

The collateral universe for DeFi lending is expanding beyond crypto-native assets. Aave Horizon already enables institutional borrowing against tokenized Treasuries and CLOs. As more RWA products become composable with DeFi protocols, the addressable market for on-chain lending widens considerably.


Section 7

Cross-Chain Landscape

Selected EVM Lending Landscape
TVL, average APY, and active markets · Source: Circular · 18 chains tracked
TVL by Chain
Avg Supply APY
Active Markets
ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Ethereum remains the center of gravity for institutional DeFi lending, commanding 85.8% of tracked lending TVL ($37.6B) across 279 active markets. Base is the second-largest chain at $2.4B, driven by Coinbase’s Morpho-powered lending products, with notably high utilization (64.6% average). Mantle has quietly emerged as a $1.06B venue. Arbitrum holds $1.01B with a 2.06% average supply APY. Hyperliquid, though smaller at $138M TVL, runs the highest utilization of any chain (85.1%) with a 4.4% average APY—signaling concentrated demand in a nascent but active ecosystem.

Solana: A Parallel Lending Track

Solana now deserves to be treated as its own lending track rather than a footnote to the EVM market. Kamino alone sits near $2.0 billion TVL with more than $1.0 billion borrowed, making it larger than many EVM lenders outside Aave and Morpho. The user base, collateral mix, and market structure are meaningfully distinct: higher throughput, more retail-native flow, and an increasingly credible home for stablecoin and treasury-linked products.

Chain Positioning

ChainTVLMarketsAvg UtilAvg APYKey Strength
Ethereum$37.6B (82.5%)27940.8%2.53%Maximum security, deepest liquidity, broadest tooling
Base$2.4B (5.3%)5064.6%2.08%Coinbase distribution, Morpho growth, highest utilization among major chains
Mantle$1.06B (2.3%)1036.1%0.43%mETH ecosystem, institutional staking
Arbitrum$1.01B (2.2%)3539.8%2.06%DeFi-native strategies, Aave + Morpho co-deployment
Avalanche$657M (1.4%)1835.3%1.16%Aave V3 presence, institutional partnerships
Hyperliquid$138M (0.3%)3385.1%4.44%Highest utilization, concentrated demand, emerging perp ecosystem
Source: Circular Risk Intelligence Platform. Data as of March 2, 2026. 18 chains tracked across Aave, Morpho, Euler, and Fluid.

Section 8

Forward Outlook & Market Structure

Lending TVL Bridge
Q4 2025 → Q1 2026

Total DeFi lending TVL across Aave, Morpho, Euler, and Fluid sits at approximately $45.6B as of early March 2026, with $19.1B in active borrows and a 42% average utilization rate. Institutional adoption (Coinbase loans, Apollo/Morpho), growth in tokenized collateral, the addition of Fluid as a fourth tracked protocol, and expansion to 18 active chains have sustained capital inflows even as token prices corrected from mid-2025 highs.

ROSETTA · DATA: CIRCULAR

Structural Tailwinds

  • Morpho V2 (Q2 2026): Market-driven rate pricing brings fixed-rate lending and term structures to DeFi for the first time.
  • Aave V4 (2026): Unified liquidity hub with modular spoke markets, addressing cross-chain capital efficiency at scale.
  • Aave App (2026): Consumer-facing mobile app that completes the retail-to-institutional distribution stack.
  • Fluid’s smart collateral/debt model: LP tokens as collateral and borrow positions as LP positions enable capital efficiency configurations no other protocol supports. At $1B deposits across 85 markets, Fluid is now a credible fourth option for institutional on-chain lending.
  • RWA expansion: Securitize, Ondo, Centrifuge, Franklin Templeton growing the tokenized collateral universe. BUIDL on Uniswap is a leading indicator.
  • Stablecoin maturation: $311 billion total, with USDC’s year-over-year growth continuing to drive lending market demand even as QoQ expansion moderates.

Asset Concentration Risk (HHI)

Circular’s asset concentration analysis reveals a moderately concentrated market, with a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of 3,386. HHI is a concentration score: the higher it is, the more the market is dominated by a small number of collateral groups. In practice, this means lending risk is still clustered rather than broadly diversified. Stablecoins and ETH each represent ~39% of collateral TVL, with BTC at 16.8%. This near-parity between stablecoins ($17.4B, 163 markets) and ETH ($17.0B, 117 markets) creates a dual-axis risk profile: a severe ETH drawdown would stress 39% of TVL, while a stablecoin depeg event would hit a similar share. The BTC segment ($7.4B, 73 markets) runs the lowest utilization at 23.7%, acting as a relatively passive collateral base. Emerging collateral categories like HYPE ($128M, 21 markets, 85% utilization) are small but run at aggressive utilization levels that warrant monitoring.

Risk Matrix

Risk FactorProbabilityImpactMitigation
ETH drawdown >40%MediumHighConservative LLTV markets, health factor monitoring
Stablecoin depegLowVery HighIsolated single-stablecoin markets (Morpho)
Smart contract exploitLowVery HighMulti-audit protocols, insurance coverage
Oracle failure / manipulationMed-LowHighDual oracle verification, circuit breakers
Regulatory reversalLowHighMulti-jurisdictional deployment
USDe/sUSDe basis unwindMediumMediumCap exposure, monitor Ethena TVL trends
Points program collapseHighLow-MedModel sustainable APY only in base case
Leverage cascade (whale)MediumHighMonitor whale positions, health factor alerts
Qualitative risk view based on historical precedent and current market structure. Probability and impact ratings are directional judgments, not modeled loss estimates.

Market Segmentation by Risk–Return Profile

TierTypical APY RangeRisk ScoreExample Markets
Core / Treasury2.5–4.0%<20WETH/USDC Aave, stETH/WETH e-mode, sDAI Spark
LST Carry4.0–6.5%20–35wstETH/WETH Morpho, cbBTC/USDC Base
Enhanced Yield6.5–12%35–50PT-sUSDe Morpho, Maple Senior, sUSDe vaults
RWA / Tokenized4.0–7.0%10–25Aave Horizon, BUIDL-backed, sDAI/RWA Morpho
Illustrative market segmentation based on observed APY ranges and Circular composite risk scores as of Q1 2026.

DeFi lending markets now span a wide risk–return spectrum. Core stablecoin markets offer rates comparable to traditional benchmarks with conservative leverage parameters, while enhanced yield tiers reflect higher complexity. Key structural advantages across all tiers: 24/7 liquidity, real-time collateral transparency, and instant settlement.


Appendix

Methodology & Sources

Data Sources

  • DefiLlama: TVL verification across all protocols and chains
  • data.morpho.org: Official Morpho protocol deposits, loans, and vault data
  • Circular: Market coverage, concentration analysis, strategy classification, cross-chain aggregation
  • Aave Governance Forum: Horizon metrics, GHO statistics, liquidation data
  • RWA.xyz: Tokenized treasury and RWA market capitalization
  • CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap: Stablecoin market cap and dominance data
  • Rosetta Metrics: Operating example data for referenced vault APYs and routed volume

Risk Score Methodology

Circular’s composite risk score (0–100) weighs five dimensions: oracle reliability, collateral quality, utilization volatility, concentration risk, and smart contract risk. Scores referenced in this report are used as comparative indicators across markets; they are not loss forecasts, credit opinions, or investment recommendations.

Circular currently tracks 655 markets across 18 chains and 4 protocols (Aave V3, Morpho, Euler, Fluid). Report figures were sourced from, or cross-checked against, that unified data layer alongside the primary sources listed above.

Financial Conventions

  • TVL = supply-side capital only, excluding borrow-side
  • APYs stored as decimals (0.042 = 4.2%), displayed as percentages
  • LLTV normalized 0–1 (Morpho: raw ÷ 1e18; Aave: raw ÷ 10000)
  • Health factor ≥ 1 = safe; < 1 = liquidatable
  • Utilization = totalBorrow / totalSupply (never averaged across markets)
  • All monetary values in USD at time of measurement
Published at rosetta.sh/blog · Risk data: Circular
This report is published by Rosetta for informational purposes only. It is a technology research publication and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. No representation or warranty is made regarding accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. DeFi protocols involve significant technical risks including smart contract vulnerabilities, oracle failures, stablecoin depegs, regulatory changes, and market volatility. Past performance of any protocol or market is not indicative of future behavior.